Host Beth Raimer is joined by John Ayers, Vice President of Subscriber Services, to discuss the recently released July 2021 Market Action figures. Tune in today!
Don’t forget to subscribe to Real Talk with RMLS on Apple Podcasts or Google Podcasts!
Music: “Tropical Summer” by ArtIss
(via MelodyLoops.com)
Beth Raimer hosts Real Talk with RMLS™, a podcast designed for REALTOR® subscribers to get the scoop about all things RMLS™.
This week, Tyler Chaudhary discusses statistical information available through Market Action and other reports on RMLSweb.
Music: “The Major Trend” by AG Music (via MelodyLoops.com)
This post is part of MLS Insight, a series about how things work at RMLS™.
In our early years, RMLS™ leadership had the goal of positioning RMLS™ as the primary source for information about the residential real estate market—so statistical information has always been a priority. Then and now, RMLS™ provides compiled data and directs media to working REALTORS® for interpretation and projections.
In other words, our expertise is the WHAT, and we leave the WHY to industry professionals who have access to the buyers and sellers whose activity underpins the data on sales, prices, and listings.
Market Action
The first issue of our monthly statistical newsletter, Market Action, was published as four printed pages in March 1992. Today Market Action is 69 pages long and covers all the market areas we serve. Next year, we will be expanding coverage to include separate stats for new construction and existing homes. Watch for a survey question in our Annual Subscriber Satisfaction Survey to weigh in on the most important data to include, or leave a comment below.
Market Trends and Market Stats
To explore the other statistics reports that RMLS™ has to offer, head to the Statistics tab on the RMLSweb menu bar.
RMLSweb also features video tutorials on how to use both Market Trends and Market Stats. (You can find these and others on RMLSweb by clicking on Training Tutorials under the Toolkit menu.)
Market Trends allows searching by geography (area number, city, ZIP code) and a few other criteria such as bedrooms, year built, lot size, etc. The resulting report produces not only a summary of data by month within the range you select, but also six graphs like the one below that are a click away from copying for your use in your own CMAs or newsletters.
Market Stats provides several reports. The Comparables Report has several additional graphs which depict sales data by sold terms and number of bedrooms. (See below for the type of info available in the Comparables Report.) The Dollar Value by Area and Inventory Reports are strictly data reports that give a very streamlined overview of market areas.
Home Sales Report
In addition to these dynamic reports which pull data according to criteria you select, RMLS™ also provides static reports under the Statistics menu. The Home Sales Report has information as early as 2001. Since July 2011, these reports have presented information for new construction—both separate from existing and combined.
Statistical Summaries
Finally, the Statistical Summaries compile years worth of Market Action historical data into a few pages and provide up to nine annual snapshots of various aspects of the residential real estate market in all our market areas. Access them under the Statistics menu on RMLSweb.
As you can see, RMLS™ takes stats seriously! If you would like to learn more about how to use stats in your business, call RMLS™ Training at (503) 236-7657 to get more information.
Thanks for taking this brief tour highlighting some of the statistical information available from RMLS™. Next month we will talk about envisioning an MLS without area numbers. If you have any questions you would like to have answered about how things work at RMLS™, I encourage you to post a comment to this blog.
The big highlight this month for many areas is a large jump in closed sales compared to last November. Curry County posted a 141.7% increase and Portland and Clark County set records for percentage increases in same-month sales at 72.4% and 70.5%, respectively.
While these stats are obviously a good sign for market activity, continue to keep in mind that last year we were at the height of the economic crisis and we hit some of the lowest points in sales totals in recent years. So, yes, sales are way up compared to last year, but remember that we’re comparing it to unusually low sales totals.
Has the winter slowdown arrived?
Closed sales had been on the rise in many key areas month-to-month through October, but it appears that the winter slowdown has arrived. Compared to this October, pending and closed sales were down in most areas, including Columbia Basin, Douglas County, Lane County, the Mid-Columbia region, Portland and Clark County.
Inventory up
Inventory ticked up in every area except Curry County and Union County, however, most areas are well below last year’s inventory levels thanks to fewer listings entering the market and higher sales totals. For example, Portland’s inventory stands at 7.1 months – 53% less than last November’s 15 months of inventory.
Below are the five MLS areas with the lowest supply of housing inventory for September 2009 for the Clark County and Portland metro areas. Inventory measures how long, in theory, it would take to exhaust the current supply of housing. We arrive at this number by dividing the number active listings by the number of sales for the month.
Clark County
| Area | Area # | Actives | Sales | Inventory |
| Lincoln/Hazel Dell | 14 | 34 | 10 | 3.4 |
| Five Corners | 25 | 89 | 18 | 4.9 |
| East Orchards | 26 | 90 | 18 | 5.0 |
| Cascade Park | 24 | 105 | 20 | 5.3 |
| Evergreen | 22 | 276 | 51 | 5.4 |
Portland Metro
| Area | Area # | Actives | Sales | Inventory |
| Beaverton/Aloha | 150 | 1,007 | 204 | 4.9 |
| NE Portland | 142 | 1,016 | 185 | 5.5 |
| North Portland | 141 | 455 | 75 | 6.1 |
| Southeast Portland | 143 | 1,396 | 228 | 6.1 |
| Hillsboro/Forest Grove | 152 | 880 | 142 | 6.2 |
This month’s RMLS™ Market Action report showed a trend of increasing real estate sales & subsequently lower housing inventory in many areas of Oregon & Southwest Washington.
Sales Activity:
Closed sales rose in the following areas this month, compared to the same month in 2008:
| Area | Closed Sales |
| Curry County, Oregon | 100% |
| Columbia Basin, Oregon | 36.6% |
| Lane County, Oregon | 23.2% |
| Clark County, Washington | 20.2% |
| Portland Metro, Oregon | 9.8% |
Third Quarter Sales Up:
September marked the end of the third quarter and compared to Q3 in 2008, Coos County, Curry County, Douglas County, Lane County, Portland and Clark County all saw sales outpace Q3 in 2008. Clark County led the pack at a clip of 18.7%.
Inventory:
Ten of eleven areas that we cover in the Market Action report saw housing inventory drop from August. This can be attributed to rising sales in several areas and as we head into the slower fall & winter seasons, fewer homes are being listed as well.
Both the Portland and Clark County areas saw inventory drop to 7.6 months. Lane County has the lowest inventory of the areas we cover at 6.8 months.
The latest edition of Market Action is now available to RMLS™ subscribers on RMLSweb. To view the latest reports, log on to RMLSweb and under the links section on the left side, there is a link that says “Latest Market Action” in red. A new window should open with all of the latest reports.
If you’re not an RMLS™ subscriber, but would like to see the latest Market Action report for your area, feel free to contact a Realtor® who is an RMLS™ subscriber and they can provide you with the report and further insight into local market conditions.
Stay tuned, as we will offer a few market highlights on the blog tomorrow!
We released the latest Market Action reports to RMLS™ subscribers yesterday. Many areas of Oregon and Southwest Washington are showing improvement as far as sales and inventory go – here are a few highlights:
Portland Metro Active Listings: Note how the 2009 line is basically flat.
Inventory: Inventory is showing steady improvement in Portland (7.3 months), Clark County (7.3 months), and Lane County (6.2 months). In most circles, 6 months of supply is considered a balanced market. The drop in inventory comes thanks to strong closed sales, but also because the number of active listings is growing at a much slower pace than usual.
Closed sales: The Portland metro area was finally able to post a gain in same-month closed sales for the first time since April 2007. Closed sales were up 8.6% compared to last July. Clark County posted a gain for the second straight month – closed sales were up 23.5% there. Lane County also posted an 11% gain. Baker County, Curry County, Douglas County, and the Mid-Columbia region also saw growth.
Clark Co. Pending Sales: Oh, so close to reaching July 2007 levels.
The latest issue of the RMLS™ Market Action for June 2009 shows increases in accepted offers, closed sales and a decrease in inventory in several regions.
Accepted Offers
The five county Portland Metro Area saw a month-over-month increase in pending sales (8.4% comparing June 2009 with June 2008) for the first time since December 2006. Pending sales also increased for the third month in a row in Clark County, Washington. The following regions also saw an increase in pending listings in June 2009: Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, Mid-Columbia and Union.
Closed Sales
Closed sales in Clark County increased14.8% comparing June 2009 with June 2008. This is the first increase since September 2008.
The following regions also experienced increases in closed sales: Columbia Basin, Curry, Douglas and Mid-Columbia.
Inventory
Inventory in all three of our largest service areas (Portland Metro, Clark County and Lane County) dipped to the lowest it’s been since August 2007. In addition, the following counties experienced drops in inventory from the previous month: Columbia Basin, Coos, Curry and Douglas.
Rumor has it that first time buyers (thanks to the $8000 tax credit) and investors are making the bulk of home purchases these days. Like all savvy shoppers, I’m sure they want to make sure they are getting a good deal.
While, ultimately this is extremely personal calculation (because it depends on the buyer’s income, mortgage rates, how well the house will meet their needs, etc.) there is one generic indicator that we can use to get a sense of where the market is at overall: the Affordability Index.
This graph shows the affordability index for the Portland Metro Area by quarter since Sept. 2003.
According to our calculations (which are based on a formula we got from the National Association of Realtors a while back) houses have been becoming increasingly more affordable since September 2008. But what does that mean?
Let’s look at the index rating for April, which was 1.41 (see graph above). In theory, someone making the median family income $70,000 according to HUD (surprisingly it’s up this year) would earn 41 percent more money than they would need to be able to afford the monthly payment on the median priced home in the Portland Market ($246, 400 according to the April 2009 Portland Market Action–of course).
That is IF they got a loan at the 4.81 percent average interest rate per Freddie Mac in April AND they had a 20 percent down payment (which we all know isn’t all that common for first time home buyers these days).
Question is: what will happen now that interest rates are starting to creep back up? We’ll let you know in the July issue of Market Action—that’s the next time we calculate and report affordability in the newsletter.