August Market Action Results Mixed

August Market Action Results Mixed

by | Sep 16, 2009

Same-month sales improve, but inventory rises in many areas

Pending sales in Clark County surpassed August 2008 & 2007 totals

Pending sales in Clark County surpassed August 2008 & 2007 totals

Sales Activity
Sales activity (pending sales & closed sales) outpaced totals from last August in several areas. Clark County continues to post impressive numbers in this category, as pending sales were up 24.9% and closed sales increased 21.4%. Portland posted a 13% increase in pending sales and 4% in closed sales.

In Southern Oregon, Curry County saw a big jump in pending sales, a 75% increase over last August. Coos County, the Columbia Basin region and Baker County also saw pending and closed sales grow.

Housing Inventory
Inventory, on the other hand, rose in many areas this month. However, most of the increases were modest and inventory remains well below 2008 levels.

Portland saw inventory rise to 7.8 months, up from 7.3 in July, but was still 21% below where inventory was in August 2008. Clark County, similarly, was at 8 months in August, but that was 37% lower than August 2008, when inventory stood at 12.7 months.

Baker, Curry, Douglas & Lane counties and the Mid-Columbia region all saw inventory increase in August, but in all cases, it was still lower than 2008.

Days on Market
You may have noticed that this month we have comparable data for the “Total Market Time” (TMT) statistical category. This is the amount of time that it takes from when a property is listed to when an offer is accepted on that same property. If the property is re-listed within 31 days, TMT continues to accrue; however, it does not include the time that it was off the market.

We started tracking this stat in August 2008, so we finally had comparable data this month. As you may recall, we used to measure “Current Listing Market Time” instead, this measure was less accurate as it only tracked the amount of time that a listing was on the market, it did not track the property address (so if it was re-listed, it would reset).

Overall, it appears that it is taking more time to market properties, all of our market areas saw increases compared to last August, with the exception of the Columbia Basin region and Union County.

In Portland it took 135 days to sell a property, up 11.5% from last August when it took 121 days.

The $8K Tax Credit and its Effect on Portland Metro Real Estate

by | Aug 24, 2009

There’s been some encouraging news lately in the RMLS™ market areas. The number of sales and pending sales are finally outpacing the totals from the same month in 2008.  How much of it might be a result of the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, though?

I recently put together some statistics for the Oregonian on the Portland metro area, and thought I would share them with you.

There is no question that home sales in the lower-end of the market have seen a big jump this year. In 2007, homes priced between $0 and $249,999 only made up 35% of all sales in the Portland metro area. In 2009 so far, they make up 49.6% of the market. 

As you’d expect, coinciding with the increase in lower-end homes is a drop in high-end homes. Homes priced $500,000 or above have dropped from 13.5% of the market in 2007, to just 8.2% of the market this year.

The question is: what will happen when the $8,000 tax credit expires on December 1?

I know the tax credit definitely got me off the fence & I can literally think of 15 of my friends and acquaintances (off the top of my head) who have bought or are actively looking to buy. 

So in my humble opinion, there’s little doubt that the tax credit spurred people to buy. But as the deadline for the credit approaches, it should be interesting to see where sales go.

July Market Action Released: Reports Show Improvement in Oregon & Southwest Washington Real Estate

by | Aug 13, 2009

We released the latest Market Action reports to RMLS™ subscribers yesterday. Many areas of Oregon and Southwest Washington are showing improvement as far as sales and inventory go – here are a few highlights:

Note how 2009 line is virtually flat compared to 2007 & 2008

Portland Metro Active Listings: Note how the 2009 line is basically flat.

Inventory: Inventory is showing steady improvement in Portland (7.3 months), Clark County (7.3 months), and Lane County (6.2 months). In most circles, 6 months of supply is considered a balanced market. The drop in inventory comes thanks to strong closed sales, but also because the number of active listings is growing at a much slower pace than usual.

Closed sales: The Portland metro area was finally able to post a gain in same-month closed sales for the first time since April 2007. Closed sales were up 8.6% compared to last July. Clark County posted a gain for the second straight month – closed sales were up 23.5% there. Lane County also posted an 11% gain. Baker County, Curry County, Douglas County, and the Mid-Columbia region also saw growth.

Clark Co. Pending Sales: Oh, so close to reaching July 2007 levels.

Clark Co. Pending Sales: Oh, so close to reaching July 2007 levels.

Pending sales: Same-month pending sales in Clark County grew for the fourth month in a row at 30.3%. In fact, Clark County pending sales not only surpassed July 2008 levels, but they came close to hitting July 2007 levels. With the exception of the Mid-Columbia region and Union County, same-month pending sales grew in all of our primary service areas.

A Realtor’s ActiveKEY + Frozen Pizza + Peanut Butter Cup + GEO Metro in the Sun = ?

by | Jul 27, 2009

Short video shows why RMLS™ subscribers should keep their ActiveKEYs out of the heat this week

We’re going to have some serious heat in most of Oregon & Southwest Washington this week. As you try to stay cool in the hot weather, keep in mind this friendly ActiveKEY battery tip from Supra:

“Temperature extremes can affect battery performance. If the ActiveKEY is below 0° C (32° F) or above 40 ° C (104° F), it will not charge. During very cold or hot times of the year, bring your ActiveKEY in from your car at night and between showings.”

Also, watch this short video that poses the question – what happens when you leave an ActiveKEY, a frozen pizza and a frozen peanut butter cup in my 1997 Geo Metro that is parked in direct sunlight?

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-fdVTBBiCM]

We filmed this a few weeks ago when it was up to about 94 degrees, so keep in mind that you might see more dramatic results in the next few days. Anyone have any other suggestions for things we should try to melt in my car?

PS:  We really do recommend that you remove your key from your car if it’s going to be parked in the sun for a long time – especially for agents that go to our Portland office – because we currently have a limited supply of ActiveKEYs due to a parts shortage at Supra. If you do need to get a new ActiveKEY, please call ahead at 503-236-7657 to ensure that we have one available for you.

June 2009 RMLS Market Action Shows Positive Activity in Several Areas in Oregon & Southern Washington

June 2009 RMLS Market Action Shows Positive Activity in Several Areas in Oregon & Southern Washington

by | Jul 16, 2009

The latest issue of the RMLS™ Market Action for June 2009 shows increases in accepted offers, closed sales and a decrease in inventory in several regions.

Accepted Offers
The five county Portland Metro Area saw a month-over-month increase in pending sales (8.4% comparing June 2009 with June 2008) for the first time since December 2006. Pending sales also increased for the third month in a row in Clark County, Washington. The following regions also saw an increase in pending listings in June 2009: Coos, Curry, Douglas, Lane, Mid-Columbia and Union.

Closed Sales
Closed sales in Clark County increased14.8% comparing June 2009 with June 2008.  This is the first increase since September 2008.

The following regions also experienced increases in closed sales: Columbia Basin, Curry, Douglas and Mid-Columbia.

Inventory
Inventory in all three of our largest service areas (Portland Metro, Clark County and Lane County) dipped to the lowest it’s been since August 2007. In addition, the following counties experienced drops in inventory from the previous month: Columbia Basin, Coos, Curry and Douglas.

How Affordable Are Homes These Days?

How Affordable Are Homes These Days?

by | Jun 11, 2009

Rumor has it that first time buyers (thanks to the $8000 tax credit) and investors are making the bulk of home purchases these days. Like all savvy shoppers, I’m sure they want to make sure they are getting a good deal.

While, ultimately this is extremely personal calculation (because it depends on the buyer’s income, mortgage rates, how well the house will meet their needs, etc.) there is one generic indicator that we can use to get a sense of where the market is at overall: the Affordability Index.  

This graph shows the affordability index for the Portland Metro Area by quarter since Sept. 2003.

This graph shows the affordability index for the Portland Metro Area by quarter since Sept. 2003.

According to our calculations (which are based on a formula we got from the National Association of Realtors a while back) houses have been becoming increasingly more affordable since September 2008. But what does that mean?

Let’s look at the index rating for April, which was 1.41 (see graph above). In theory, someone making the median family income $70,000 according to HUD (surprisingly it’s up this year) would earn 41 percent more money than they would need to be able to afford the monthly payment on the median priced home in the Portland Market ($246, 400 according to the April 2009 Portland Market Action–of course).

That is IF they got a loan at the 4.81 percent average interest rate per Freddie Mac in April AND they had a 20 percent down payment (which we all know isn’t all that common for first time home buyers these days).

Question is: what will happen now that interest rates are starting to creep back up? We’ll let you know in the July issue of Market Action—that’s the next time we calculate and report affordability in the newsletter.